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Türkiye Can Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 35 Percent by 2035
01 Sep 2025According to IPM’s new report, Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions could return to 2010 levels by 2035 with a gradual phase-out of coal by 2036 and an acceleration of renewable energy installations. If energy transformation, industrial technology transformation, and electrification of buildings are achieved, total greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by 61% by 2053.
Sabancı University Istanbul Policy Center’s (IPC) report titled “Turkey’s Decarbonization Roadmap: Towards Net Zero by 2053” was announced at a meeting. report
In the study, greenhouse gas emissions covering all relevant sectors of the economy were combined, reduction scenarios were prepared for Turkey for the 2025–2053 period, and investment costs were determined. The report serves as a scientific background for the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that Turkey will submit to the United Nations this year.
Turkey, which announced with the Paris Agreement signed in 2021 that it aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2053, had in its updated NDC in 2022 set a target framed as a reduction from a 41% increase in emissions. However, this target is not compatible with long-term net-zero alignment and does not allow the formation of a reduction pathway in sectors. The IPC study is important insofar as it reveals the interim target Turkey should set for 2035 on the road to the Net Zero 2053 objective by comparing reference and net-zero scenarios.
Participants at the meeting included IPC Climate Change Studies Coordinator Dr. Ümit Şahin, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Osman Bülent Tör from Hacettepe University Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering and EPRA General Manager, Prof. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda from METU Department of Economics, Prof. Dr. İlkay Dellal from Ankara University Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics, Assoc. Dr. Duygu Erten from Ankara University and TURKECO Energy, and Dr. Özay Uslu from Medipol University Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences.
In his opening remarks, Dr. Şahin emphasized that IPC began model studies before Turkey became a party to the Paris Agreement and said: “Turkey can absolutely reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 2025–2035 with a planned strategy and can further reduce emissions until 2053 to approach the Net Zero target. According to the Net Zero scenario in this study, for Turkey’s new NDC to be aligned with the 2053 Net Zero target, the year 2021 must first be preserved as the peak year of emissions, and emissions must begin to be reduced rapidly from 2025 onward.”
Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 35% compared to 2021 and fall to 370 million tons by 2035 if the necessary policies are followed. This also means reducing emissions to pre-2010 levels. According to the Net Zero scenario, the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions occurs more rapidly. Turkey’s carbon dioxide emissions could decline by 40% compared to 2021 to 277 million tons by 2035. This would mean carbon dioxide emissions could return to pre-2005 levels.
The reductions achievable by 2035 largely depend on a gradual coal phase-out in the power sector and rapid deployment of new renewable energy plants. A gradual exit from coal in the power sector can be completed by 2036. This is possible with annual wind and solar installation rates reaching approximately 10 GW and with 9 GW of battery investment by 2035.”
61% Reduction in Emissions Is Possible
According to IPC’s “Turkey’s Decarbonization Roadmap: Towards Net Zero by 2053” report, Turkey can reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 61% by 2053 if it rapidly transitions to renewable energy and electric vehicles, phases out coal gradually, carries out industrial technology transformation, and electrifies buildings. This corresponds to an average annual reduction of about 3%. Achieving Turkey’s Net Zero target entails an additional cost of 265 billion USD for the 10-year period 2025–2035. The largest share of this cost (75%) stems from the transformation of the building sector. Within this figure, the transformation cost for industry remains at approximately 8.3 billion USD, while it reaches 80 billion USD for the electricity sector. For the transport sector, rather than an additional cost, a benefit of 36.5 billion USD arises due to reduced oil imports.
The report was prepared by considering all sectors of the Turkish economy relevant to the 2053 Net Zero target (electricity, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture, waste) and all greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and F-gases). The roadmap examined the possible trajectory of Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions through two separate scenarios.
-In the reference scenario, without additional interventions in the economy to achieve net zero and without ambitious climate policies, the level that energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions would reach by 2053 if current trends continue was presented.
– In the Net Zero scenario, the necessary economic interventions to reach net zero emissions by 2053 were assumed. Accordingly, the rapid transition to renewable energy, gradual coal phase-out, rapid shift to electric vehicles, gradual technological transformation in industry, and electrification of buildings were modeled to show how energy demand and emissions would evolve.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Electricity Could Decrease by 6.5% Annually
The report emphasizes that greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector could increase by an average of 1.2% annually in the reference scenario between 2025–2053, while in the Net Zero scenario they could decrease by an average of 6.5% annually. In the Net Zero scenario for the electricity sector, CO₂-equivalent emissions could be reduced by 54% in 2035 compared to 2025 and by 84% in 2053. The total cost of the Net Zero transformation in the electricity sector, including maintenance, fuel, operation, and grid investments, is 80.1 billion USD. The largest share among these cost items is power plant investments.
Assoc. Dr. Osman Bülent Tör explained the study’s details and said: “The Net Zero Roadmap for Turkey’s electricity sector was prepared using the EP-SIM model, grounding both the reference and net-zero scenarios on a realistic basis. This produces a reliable and implementable roadmap for policymakers. The assumptions made for the energy sector provide concrete support for the formulation of the updated NDC. The projections are technically robust as well as politically informative.”
8.3 Billion Dollars Required for Industry to Reach Net Zero
The report examined sub-sectors such as steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, chemicals, and textiles, which are major contributors to industry-related greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey. According to the study, the industrial sector undergoes a significant transformation on the Net Zero pathway. The Net Zero scenario creates approximately 11% more electricity demand in industry compared to the reference scenario. This increase primarily arises from electrification in chemicals and other industrial subsectors. Nevertheless, total energy consumption is balanced by efficiency gains and demand reductions in many sectors.
Approximately 8.3 billion USD of additional investment is needed by 2035 for the necessary industrial transformation to occur. Over the 2025–2053 period, industrial emissions show an average annual increase of 2.5% in the reference scenario, while in the Net Zero scenario emissions decline by 2% annually. In the Net Zero scenario, compared to 2025, CO₂-equivalent emissions decrease by 22% in 2035 and 44% in 2053.
Prof. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda noted that the study’s findings clearly present applicable decarbonization options for each sector and continued: “Technological transformation in metals, catalytic reduction in fertilizers, and reducing clinker ratios and using recycled materials in cement stand out. The cement sector is a critical focus area as the largest source of process emissions on the path to 2053. While increased electrification is expected in chemicals and other industries, the pace of transformation will be determined by the consistent implementation of energy efficiency gains.”
Electrification in Transport Could Reduce Emissions by 52%
For the transport sector, a 70% reduction is achieved in 2053 compared to the reference scenario, and a 52% reduction compared to 2025. It is estimated that about 75.3 billion USD of investment is needed for the transformation by 2035, while 111.9 billion USD of savings can be realized due to reduced fossil fuel use. This implies a net benefit of 36.5 billion USD from the transport transformation.
Presenting the transport section, Dr. Özay Uslu said: “The transport sector is a strategic lever in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Our modeling and projections show that the transition to electric vehicles and accelerated investments in this area significantly reduce emissions. A shift particularly from road to rail transport offers a strong environmental and economic opportunity. These scenarios present an applicable and cost-effective roadmap for low-carbon transport policies while improving energy efficiency and reducing dependency on fossil fuels.”
Emissions from Buildings Could Reach Zero by 2045
In the Net Zero scenario, all new buildings after 2025 are constructed as “Nearly Zero Energy Buildings” (NZEB), the share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) rises to 20% by 2040 and 30% by 2050, buildings constructed before 2000 are gradually demolished and replaced, and energy efficiency improvements are implemented in existing buildings. It is also targeted that fossil fuels in heating will be completely abandoned by transitioning from coal to gas and then from gas to electricity by 2045. With this transformation, emissions from buildings drop to zero from 2045 onward. However, this transformation requires approximately 200 billion USD of investment.
At the meeting, Prof. Dr. Duygu Erten described the building sector as a “sleeping giant” with large untapped potential for climate action. Erten said: “In Turkey, buildings are responsible for approximately 14% of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Around 76% of these emissions come from residential buildings and 24% from commercial and institutional buildings. The NDC study contains a special section outlining measures and targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in buildings and improving energy efficiency. Accordingly, with the transition from coal to gas and then from gas to electricity and the full abandonment of fossil fuels in heating, net zero can be achieved even before 2053.”
Electrification and Efficiency of Agricultural Machinery Stand Out in Agriculture
In the agricultural sector, if current trends continue, agricultural emissions are expected to rise to 99 MtCO₂e by 2053. Under the Net Zero scenario, emissions could fall to 68 MtCO₂e by 2053. Regarding the impact of strategies, fertilizer-related emissions can be reduced by 66.5% through biogas use, by 67.6% via electrification of agricultural machinery, and by 14.3% through genetic improvement and better feed quality in cattle breeding.
Prof. Dr. İlkay Dellal, who detailed the agricultural studies, emphasized that they addressed the issue with the aim of preserving Turkey’s food security and global competitiveness by 2053. Dellal stated: “In scenarios structured in line with national climate policies, reducing chemical fertilizer use, increasing crop rotation with legumes, reduced tillage, electrification of agricultural machinery, using animal manure in biogas facilities, and productivity increases through breeding stand out. Thanks to these practices, a low-emission and environmentally friendly agricultural model will be possible and will strongly support Turkey’s achievement of the 2053 Net Zero target.”
In the report’s conclusion, it was emphasized that Turkey can absolutely reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 2025–2035 and further reduce emissions until 2053 and approach the Net Zero target with a planned strategy covering the whole economy and measures that are proven to be technologically and economically feasible.
Source: İklim Haber
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